Category: Season 12

Closing thoughts

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As I said at the beginning of the year, my sole aim this season was to build a predictive model worth a damn, just to see if it could be done. In the end, the model was 93% accurate in calling people safe (including winner Candice Glover tonight) and picked the person eliminated 78% of the time (89% of those eliminated were ranked either first or second most likely to go, FWIW). That’s pretty decent.

The site found an audience, as well, which I suppose I’m happy about. The site was the top Google search for “Idol predictions” as of yesterday, and about 6000 unique visitors showed up to see the (thankfully correct) call of Candice as winner. About 3000 people found their way to the site weekly, on average, during the finals.

S12Sitestats

Top 2 prediction (updated)

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Name Song DialIdol VoteFair
Kree Harrison Angel /
All Cried Out /
Up To The Mountain		 59.667 9.287 42 0.758
Candice Glover Chasing Pavements /
I Am Beautiful /
I (Who Have Nothing)		 64 14.735 58 0.242

Updated 10:54 AM EST. Candice has expanded her lead on Dialidol, and is now called by that service as well, outside the margin of error. Dialidol tends to be cautious when it calls a contest, so this is looking better for Candice.
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Prediction coming soon, but Candice is already way ahead

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The official model call will be posted as soon as WNTS ratings are posted, but those don’t matter all that much at this stage. Candice is handily beating Kree on both Dialidol and Votefair, and that by itself is enough to put her at a 75% chance to win, versus only 25% for Kree. If WNTS ratings come in like I think they will, it will be a clean sweep. Check back for the official numbers after Dialidol equilibrates a little, but I have Candice at about 1:3 odds at present.

Season 12 model accuracy assessment roundup

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As we head into the finale, it’s time to look at how predictable the season has been, particularly with regard to the three prediction models on this site. The first is the semi-finals model, predicting who would be in the finals. The second is the finals model, a week-to-week guess as to who would be in the bottom group, safe, and/or eliminated. Finally, the Top 3 Tracker, which tried to guess who the Top 3 would be.

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