Smart money’s on the white guy.
Category: Season 14
Finale Part One I Guess? Liveblog
So welcome to part 1 of the bizarrely abbreviated finale of the fabulous fourteenth season of Idol. Woo. Continue reading
Top 3 projection
Name | WNTS Rating (high) | Popularity | Safe Probability |
---|---|---|---|
Jax | 85 | 33.3 | 68.1% |
Clark | 80 | 45.2 | 67.6% |
Nick | 70 | 25.0 | 66.2% |
Eeney meeney miney mo
Yeah, no idea. On a historical basis, there’s no way to say what will happen on Tuesday. The people all had a well-rated best performance (Back Home for Nick, My Immortal for Jax, and Earned It for Clark), though Jax was the highest-rated.
There have been some irregularities on the Votefair poll (the runner, Mr. Fobes, says that a Canadian was spamming his site with votes). That being said, Votefair isn’t particularly predictive at this point anyway. But for what it’s worth, Nick is the lowest rated on that service by a comfortable margin. The values printed above are the values from today, normalized.
If you want my subjective opinion, Clark and Jax nudge out Nick for a finale.
Of the three remaining contestants, Twitter has the most negative view of Clark, with Nick in close second:
Jax is well ahead of the others on Twitter. Note that Bing Predicts (which has access to the most actual data by a mile) said Jax was in danger tonight. They have not seen fit to present the reasoning behind that.
Top 4 Liveblog
So the “theme” tonight is judge’s (judges’?) Pick, Scott Borchetta’s pick, and hometown pick. And there are four of them. And one will be voted off. Yay. Continue reading
Top 4 projection
Name | WNTS Rating (high) | Popularity | Safe Probability |
---|---|---|---|
Nick | 70 | 11.0 | 66.2% |
JAX | 55 | 13.0 | 62.6% |
Clark | 40 | 58.0 | 56.0% |
Rayvon | 65 | 6.0 | 15.1% |
Life is full of close calls, but this isn’t one of them.
Rayvon is heavily favored to go home. More than 7 points outside the margin of error. It would be a shocker if he weren’t eliminated.
Nick has sort of risen to the front of the pack, but not by much. Nobody touches Clark on Votefair (but then again, neither did anyone get very close to Angie Miller, third place in S13 … that index is not particularly predictive at this point).
Rayvon has, for the first time since the Top 11, the highest negative sentiment on Twitter: