Top 3 Tracker for the Top 8

I don’t think there’re any surprises here except for Joey Cook. Why did Joey’s popularity numbers crash so badly when she sang one bad song, only to rebound the next week? It’s not at all clear to me. But I suspect that next week Joey will rise back to fairly high percentage, and that this is an artifact.

Right now, the Top 3 Tracker does take into account how well the contestant did in previous rounds, but it mostly is looking at the current round (which means Joey’s performance of Girls Just Want to Have Fun). The model views her quite suspiciously because of that, and thus rates Nick and Quentin as being more likely. I’m not so sure myself.

Top 3 Tracker: bullish on Clark, bearish on Tyanna

(Note: because of this year’s format, the Top 3 Tracker does not reflect the most recent forecast. Pretend you are reading this after the results show but before the next singing show).

Things keep looking better and better for Clark. Duh.

Jax had a misstep in the first round of the Top 11 (with an off version of Taylor Swift’s Blank Space), but she bounces back with Grow Old with You. Joey continues to rise, but if the current results are any indication, she will fall next week (maybe badly).

And at the bottom is poor little Daniel Seavey, with a 1% chance.

Top 3 Tracker for the Top 11 (redux)

The Top 3 tracker is a long view of the contest, trying to figure out who will end up in the Top 3 based on the current standings. It works in a similar way to the finals model, but rather than week-to-week, it looks at historical information to decide who most looks like a Top 3 contestant.

Note that these are all calculated before last night’s performances, so these are based on last week’s scores.

All things being equal, everyone’s chances should improve every week, as any time someone is eliminated you have a better chance just by random pick.

Tyanna, Clark, Nick, and Joey look like the most likely by a lot. All of them are better than 50:50. Hit the jump for more info.

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Top 3 Tracker for the Top 11

The top 3 tracker is a look ahead to the end of the contest, assigning the chance that somebody will be in the Top 3 based on how they are doing now.

As you can see, there is a high amount of uncertainty at this stage. Even someone predicted super-safe like Clark has only a 40% chance of being in the Top 3. (Think Pia Toscano). Below is the historical information:

Hover your mouse to see who each dot corresponds to. Blue dots are contestants in previous years. Green dots that lie on the theoretical curve are this year’s contestants. Nobody making the Top 3 would be shocking, including Daniel Seavey (Haley Reinhart was considered even less likely than him at this point).

Final Top 3 Tracker of Season 13

The Top 3 tracker is a long view of the contest, trying to figure out who will end up in the Top 3 based on the current standings. It works in a similar way to the finals model, but rather than week-to-week, it looks at historical information to decide who most looks like a Top 3 contestant.

Here is the Top 3 tracker over time:

The Top 3 looks quite likely to include Jena and Caleb. The race has tightened in the extreme between Alex and Jessica, and one should no longer, in my opinion, be nearly so sure that Alex will make it instead of Jessica.

Jena has been above 80% for five weeks now. Both she and Caleb are the only ones to make it that high in any week except Alex after the Top 8 redux.

Jessica has momentum following Sam’s elimination, based on two weeks where her approval ratings have been improving somewhat. Alex seems to be in a problematic mode: his really amazingly highly rated performances were several weeks ago, and since then he’s oscillated around 65% with no sign of picking up. His popularity is also flagging. That being said, according to the internet, Jessica is more likely to be eliminated. I sympathize with this, since she has been in the bottom 3, and Alex never has. But there is a lot of room for a surprise in this round.

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