Top 3 Tracker for the Top 9

The Top 3 tracker is a long view of the contest, trying to figure out who will end up in the Top 3 based on the current standings. It works in a similar way to the finals model, but rather than week-to-week, it looks at historical information to decide who most looks like a Top 3 contestant.

Majesty Rose, once so highly rated, has plummeted, and is now considered a long shot. I don’t know that we’ve ever seen anything quite like it. Meanwhile, Malaya Watson has had something of a resurgence, gaining for the first time since the finals began.

Alex Preston and Sam Woolf are now in a virtual tie for first place, as Sam bounced back from a really bad night last week. Alex, along with Jessica and Caleb, is one of only 3 contestants who’ve not yet been in the bottom 3. He continues to improve his chances, up 5 points from last week. Jena maintains her spot in third place.

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Top 3 tracker for the Top 10

The Top 3 tracker is a long view of the contest, trying to figure out who will end up in the Top 3 based on the current standings. It works in a similar way to the finals model, but rather than week-to-week, it looks at historical information to decide who most looks like a Top 3 contestant.

All things being equal, everyone’s chances should improve every week, as any time someone is eliminated you have a better chance just by random pick.

Alex Preston has taken over the top spot, after a week where he got rave reviews. The current Top 10 has six people who’ve been in the bottom 3 or were wildcard, but he isn’t among them. He’s improved his chances each week.

Sam and Majesty were at the top of the heap, but have now fallen. This is logical, since they were both in the bottom 3 this week. They each still have a good chance of making it, though. The same goes for Jena.

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The Top 3 tracker has gotten into the liquor cabinet

How can Jena Irene be 50/50 for the Top 3 if she was just in the Bottom 3?

Maybe this is kind of a slatepitch, but I don’t mind this call as much as you’d think. Haley Reinhart and Syesha Mercado were both in the bottom group in early rounds, but they made the Top 3. If you want to go back to before the model’s consideration, there was Nikki McKibbon and Elliott Yamin. At only 50%, I don’t think this call is awful.

But yes, as we move through the weeks, and confidence in Dialidol is further lost (or restored), this call is going to look much more silly, and I will start to discount Dialidol. Even Votefair has been highly misleading. As I said in an earlier post, if the fundamental rules of the game change, it can be difficult to know how to proceed. Saying that factors like those measured by other websites are worthless seems unsound: surely they are measuring something. And to be sure, one shouldn’t fundamentally change his view of something based on two improbable results.

However, if one has another reason to doubt a model, e.g. if there’s been a major rule change, then yes, I think you have to update your thinking. How can you not? The problem is that I do not yet have enough information to know how to update my thinking. If you asked me who was going home, I would not have picked Emily Piriz over M.K. Nobilette. If you did, great for you, you perhaps have a better feeling for this than I do. I’m mystified at the success of Dexter, Ben, and C.J. just one year after we saw the mass slaughter of every single male contestant over 5 consecutive weeks. Emily got a video clip showing her marine corps boyfriend, and went for the latino vote. Didn’t seem like a likely pick to me.

Top 3 Tracker For the Top 13

The Top 3 tracker is a long view of the contest, trying to figure out who will end up in the Top 3 based on the current standings. It works in a similar way to the finals model, but rather than week-to-week, it looks at historical information to decide who most looks like a Top 3 contestant.

Sam Woolf and Majesty Rose have about even odds of reaching the Top 3. Everyone else has a significantly smaller chance of making it, at less than 1 in 3. Continue reading

Top 3 tracker gets a one week extension! Because Idol can’t plan!

So now we have our answer for how the producers plan to fill their schedule. Another Top 4 means that the Top 3 Tracker sticks around for one more week, though there isn’t much change. Amber fell a little bit and Angie rose.

In lieu of a post-game post this week, let’s contemplate what the data doesn’t say. Did Kree benefit from Janelle’s voters after she was eliminated? There’s no real good way to know this. We could look at Votefair’s results, which show which people preferred whom. However, this isn’t scientific, since people decide whether to answer Votefair’s survey. Moreover, the sample size changed by a large amount. Nevertheless, purely out of curiousity, let’s look at what the change in preference were from the previous week assuming the same people voted on the site both weeks:

Switched from %
Candice to Angie 14
Kree to Candice 2
Candice to Amber 7
Kree to Angie 14
Amber to Angie 20
Kree to Amber 8

Kree lost preference in all her pairings. So where did the extra votes come from to keep her in the top 2? Did they come from Janelle’s voters? Plausible. There’s no way to quantify it, of course, but it’s obviously common sense that if there are two country contestants, and one gets booted, the remaining one will pick up votes.

Top 3 Tracker as of 4/27/2013. Hover your cursor for more info.