The model was somewhat vindicated last night after a disastrous first week. I made significant improvements to the way it considered the data, and it correctly predicted the bottom 3. As I said, Naima was a sure thing, with Paul and Thia in a dead-heat. In the end, Thia was eliminated. What’s interesting to me is just how far off Dialidol was:
The bottom 6 according to Dialidol
On the one hand, Dialidol got 2/3 of the bottom 3. However, it significantly overestimated Naima, which my model had by a factor of 4 the most likely to be eliminated. I also get no sense that Lauren was possibly at risk, but Dialidol ranked her as fourth worst. Does anybody really believe that?
The model is relatively sure of the bottom 3. With a binary value model it thinks
A continuous variable analysis is way more sure of Naima
My personal feeling is that the second predictions are better, and the significance is better anyway. Naima is toast, then Paul and Thia in a dead heat. This could change if the major scoring services change a lot. I don’t think that’ll happen. Bye Naima!
Sight unseen, the variables that determine a losing Idol performance are age and sex. Young people are historically treated with skepticism by the public, especially those under 20. The public is also biased against women generally, but there is no real bias in theme rounds where the person whose songs are being performed (Elton John, in this case) is the opposite gender from the contestant:
Barry Manilow (M)
Jennifer Hudson (F)
Amanda Overmyer (F), David Hernandez (M), Michael Lynche (M)
Bee Gees (M)
LaKisha Jones (F), Josh Gracin (M)
Billy Joel (M)
Kim Caldwell (F)
Bon Jovi (M)
Phil Stacey (M) and Chris Richardson (M)*
Diana Ross (F)
Brandon Roger (M)
Dolly Parton (F)
Ramiele Malubay (F)
Elton John (M)
Camile Velasco (F)
Elvis Presley (M)
Chris Daughtry (M), Katie Stevens* (F), Andrew Garcia* (M)
Frank Sinatra (M)
Aaron Kelly (M)
Gloria Estefan (F)
John Stevens (M)
Mariah Carey (F)
Kristy Lee Cook (F)
Michael Jackson (M)
Jasmine Murray (F)*, Jorge Nunez (M)*
Neil Diamond (M)
Brooke White (F)
Bucky Covington (M)
Rolling Stones (M)
Lacey Brown (F)
Shania Twain (F)
Siobhan Magnus (F)
Stevie Wonder (M)
Melissa McGhee (F)
*in double elimination
It’s about even.
The people I would worry about Thia, Lauren, and Haley. All women, all 20 or younger, and two of which were in the bottom 3 already.
I’ve been playing around with the numbers, and am able to get a decent projection model with relatively few assumptions. The model is not yet amazingly statistically significant. Nevertheless, the predictions are interesting.
The model assumes that the primary indicators of elimination are Gender, Slot, and whether or not the contestant scored in the bottom 3 on Dialidol and WNTS. You can download the full data set for Top 11 episodes (S4-S9; male is coded as 1, female as 0, and bottom 3 is 1 for yes, 0 for no). Now, we can use R to get a logistical fit Continue reading
This year, American Idol is shown on Wednesday and Thursday nights, rather than the Tuesday/Wednesday showing of yore (naturally the three-day weeks, i.e. during the Top 24, were still Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday). Personally, I prefer the old Tuesday/Wednesday timeslots. What do y’all think?