Twitter reacts to the Top 11

TwitterSentiment2015-03-13Daniel manages to up his profile a bit, while Rayvon loses a lot of steam after a lackluster outing tonight. Tyanna, Clark, and Adanna got the fewest number of people bitching about them on Twitter.

Some opinions picked totally at random and certainly not aimed at one person in particular:

“Daniel is the Sanjaya. He’s. Never. Going. To. Leave.”
“Daniel needs to go. He is way out of his league and needs to wait another 3 yrs or so and then he can try again””Sarina Joi going home this early is the most tragic events in Idol history. DANIEL NEEDS TO GO HOME PLEASE.”
“Sarina getting eliminated is shocking but the most mind blowing thing is Daniel Seavey outlasting her. My mind can’t proces”

Top 12 forecast and Twitter sentiment

Probabilities are based on a bottom 3. Multiply by 10/9 if there is only a bottom 2.

Name WNTS Rating Popularity Order Safe Probability
Clark 79 29.305 9 > 98%
Quentin 69 13.87 11 > 98%
JAX 75 11.37 7 97.7%
Joey 59 8.87 10 97.2%
Tyanna 75 10.01 5 91.3%
Rayvon 74 6.615 2 84.3%
Nick 48 5.4 6 83.8%
Adanna 43 2.665 12 78.1%
Qaasim 27 1.55 8 70.9%
Maddie 43 4.42 4 50.4%
Sarina 33 4.795 1 25.5%
Daniel 9 1.13 3 24.5%

Green means projected safe. Red means projected in the bottom 3. Yellow means too close to call.

How did the stars align to put Sarina-Joi projected to be in trouble? Her performance was poorly rated, she is female, she sang at the top of the show, and her numbers on internet polls has cratered. It’s a bit of whiplash, but I can definitely see it happening.

Quentin is again called super-safe, which historically would be right-on, but Quentin is a bit of an odd-duck. He was called super-safe in the last round, and in fact was not voted through. True, he may have been in the Top 6 (we weren’t told), but nevertheless that’s not very confidence inspiring. I’m leery of the call.

As for Twitter, they also hate Daniel:

TwitterSentiment2015-03-12Jax, Tyanna, and Nick hold the top spots, with Joey and Qaasim garnering quite a few negative comments.

Top 16 forecast (final)

Green means predicted safe (outside of the margin of error). Red means predicted eliminated. Yellow means too close to call. Methodology is here.

Update: Joey misses the cut-off, and is too close to call. Adanna gains and is predicted safe. Alexis is no longer called eliminated, she is too close to call.

Men:

Name Approval Rating Popularity Order Chance of advancement
Clark 58 24.5 5 > 98%
Quentin 66 19.6 8 > 98%
Qaasim 58 15.3 7 95.6%
Nick 57 14.7 6 94.4%
Rayvon 62 13.3 3 91.3%
Adam 32 3.2 4 44.6%
Daniel 17 6.5 1 43.2%
Mark 18 3.2 2 31.9%

Women:

Name Approval Rating Popularity Order Chance of advancement
Sarina 85 34.2 5 > 98%
Tyanna 64 18.6 1 > 98%
JAX 56 19.2 7 > 98%
Adanna 55 6.6 6 79.5%
Joey 44 8.7 4 78.0%
Maddie 42 6.3 3 64.9%
Loren 36 3.7 2 46.4%
Alexis 7 2 8 34.9%

On the men’s side, I’m not confident calling anybody gone for sure. Mark seems like the best bet: he was early in the show, lazy as hell, and doesn’t have a young girl fanbase. The front-runner men, Quentin, Clark, Qaasim, and Rayvon seem like locks.

As far as the women, It’s hard to see a world in which Sarina-Joi and Tyanna aren’t advanced, and Jax being eliminated would be a stunner. Joey is conceivable, though. Alexis is really far down, and I’m comfortable calling her gone for now.