Tag: Lauren Alaina

Top 9 Projections

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I sure hope this is wrong

Contestant Probability of elimination
Haley Reinhart 0.289
Lauren Alaina 0.189
Stefano Langone 0.181
Jacob Lusk 0.131
Paul McDonald 0.018
Casey Abrams 0.015
Pia Toscano 0.006
James Durbin 0.002
Scotty McCreery 0.001

Unfortunately, it doesn’t really feel wrong to me. Women get the short stick when it comes to the Top 9, even in rounds where there are only 3 of them left. Haley’s performance was good, but not quite good enough according to the model, especially considering the order that she went.

Now there is no clear favorite to go. Haley, Lauren, Stefano, and Jacob are the likely bottom vote getters. Everyone else has a much smaller probability. But it would not be shocking if Stefano (P = 18%) were to go instead of Haley (P = 29%). But, the smart money is on Haley.

Top 9 pre-game odds

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Let’s get right to it

Name Probability of elimination
Haley 0.218
Lauren 0.126
Pia 0.125
Paul 0.124
Stefano 0.097
Casey 0.093
Scotty 0.092
Jacob 0.079
James 0.052

Now that we’re in the Top 9, the odds of being eliminated as a man get marginally bigger. The problem here is that the data from previous seasons is lopsided towards women; therefore, I’ve based current projections only on seasons with 3 or 4 women only left in the Top 9. This week now incorporates average prior approval ratings into the mix, taking the average of the last three weeks.

Conventional wisdom is that Pia Toscano needs to step up her game, and I don’t see any reason why this is wrong. Despite having only 3 women, they are still at a huge disadvantage here, and her performances lately have been perceived as boring. Her song choice this week, River Deep – Mountain High, is in my opinion a terrible choice. It is a marginally well-known song, and has a limited but disastrous track record on the show. She runs the risk of being forgettable very easily; if you’re rooting for her, it could come down to performance order, so hope for the pimp spot.

Last week notwithstanding, Haley Reinhart is still in big trouble. She has to beat Paul and Stefano by about 10 points to not be considered likely to be in the bottom 3. Lauren, Pia, and Paul are all about equally likely to go, and so their performances will sort them out. The only people I consider bulletproof are Jacob Lusk and James Durbin, though Jacob is certainly singing against type this week, as it’s Rock and Roll and he is more of a soul/R&B guy.

Sizing up the competition

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By and large, I would say that a general rule of American Idol is that the eventual winner comes out early with a very good performance. By “a very good performance”, I would qualify that as something that scores 85 or better on the approval ratings. Only one winner ever, Taylor Hicks, has managed to win the title without a score of 85 or better in the first few weeks. Kelly Clarkson had one in the second week of the finals, as did Ruben Studdard, Carrie Underwood, and Jordin Sparks. Fantasia didn’t have one until week 5. David Cook and Lee DeWyze had theirs in the 3rd week, and Kris Allen in the 4th.

We are now past week 4, and we have three performances over this threshold:

Contestant Song WNTS Rating
Pia Toscano I’ll Stand By You 91
Jacob Lusk A House Is Not A Home 88
Casey Abrams I Put A Spell On You 85

In fact, the people who got scores over 85 in the finals reads like a who’s-who of Idol finalists. Of those 40 contestants, only 6, George Huff, Trenyce, Siobahn Magnus, Amy Adams, Mandisa, and Constantine Maroulis, failed to make the Top 4. Huff missed by only one, Magnus and Maroulis by two, each in a huge upset.

If one of the other contestants wants to make a showing, the time to do so is rapidly passing. Lauren Alaina, for instance, generally scores well. But without a huge memorable performance to insulate her, one false step could send her packing.

Top 11 post-game redux: assessing the model

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The model was somewhat vindicated last night after a disastrous first week. I made significant improvements to the way it considered the data, and it correctly predicted the bottom 3. As I said, Naima was a sure thing, with Paul and Thia in a dead-heat. In the end, Thia was eliminated. What’s interesting to me is just how far off Dialidol was:

The bottom 6 according to Dialidol

On the one hand, Dialidol got 2/3 of the bottom 3. However, it significantly overestimated Naima, which my model had by a factor of 4 the most likely to be eliminated. I also get no sense that Lauren was possibly at risk, but Dialidol ranked her as fourth worst. Does anybody really believe that?

The WNTS approval ratings were quite different: Continue reading

Final 11 redux pre-game

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Sight unseen, the variables that determine a losing Idol performance are age and sex. Young people are historically treated with skepticism by the public, especially those under 20. The public is also biased against women generally, but there is no real bias in theme rounds where the person whose songs are being performed (Elton John, in this case) is the opposite gender from the contestant:

Theme Contestant Eliminated
Barry Manilow (M) Jennifer Hudson (F)
Beatles (M) Amanda Overmyer (F), David Hernandez (M), Michael Lynche (M)
Bee Gees (M) LaKisha Jones (F), Josh Gracin (M)
Billy Joel (M) Kim Caldwell (F)
Bon Jovi (M) Phil Stacey (M) and Chris Richardson (M)*
Diana Ross (F) Brandon Roger (M)
Dolly Parton (F) Ramiele Malubay (F)
Elton John (M) Camile Velasco (F)
Elvis Presley (M) Chris Daughtry (M), Katie Stevens* (F), Andrew Garcia* (M)
Frank Sinatra (M) Aaron Kelly (M)
Gloria Estefan (F) John Stevens (M)
Mariah Carey (F) Kristy Lee Cook (F)
Michael Jackson (M) Jasmine Murray (F)*, Jorge Nunez (M)*
Neil Diamond (M) Brooke White (F)
Queen (??) Bucky Covington (M)
Rolling Stones (M) Lacey Brown (F)
Shania Twain (F) Siobhan Magnus (F)
Stevie Wonder (M) Melissa McGhee (F)

*in double elimination

It’s about even.

The people I would worry about Thia, Lauren, and Haley. All women, all 20 or younger, and two of which were in the bottom 3 already.