The final 11 is the first round where men start to become vulnerable in the contest. Whereas women constitute 71% of Final 12 eliminated, in the Final 11 they constitute only 60%, so we can certainly have a man not only in the bottom 3 but actually kicked off. If I had to pick a man to worry about, it would most definitely be Paul McDonald:
Week |
Average |
Paul |
Margin |
Final 12 |
46 |
28 |
-18 |
Final 13 |
51.7 |
42 |
-9.7 |
Not only did Paul under-perform the average, he was dead last among all men in WNTS rating.
Nevertheless, the odds still favor a lady leaving us on Thursday, and it’s not hard to figure out which one:
Week |
Average |
Naima |
Margin |
Final 12 |
46 |
17 |
-29 |
Final 13 |
51.7 |
44 |
-7.7 |
Of the women who failed to make the Final 12 by vote, Naima is the only one remaining. It has happened quite frequently that a woman who was in the Bottom 3 in the first two final round made it through the third, but excepting in the case of Haley Scarnato and Camile Velasco, none has done so with a score quite as bad as Naima’s was. Naima needs probably at least a WNTS score of 30 to be safe.
The theme of the week, Motown, has historically probably not been advantageous to either men or women. Although women dominate the bottom 3 for Motown, it has only come up in the Final 10 and Final 12 episodes, when women tend to get the worst of it anyway.
I would, sight unseen, also assume Haley will be in the bottom 3, though I am significantly less sure of this than Naima.