Top 8 Forecast

Here’s a bit more detail than I previously printed. The name, gender is printed, followed by the preliminary approval rating from WNTS, the Dialidol score (also preliminary), the average of the 3 previous rounds WNTS scores, and finally the projected probability of going home.

       Contestant Sex WNTS.Rating Dialidol.score PriorAverage  Probability
1   Paul McDonald   M          20          11.83        51.66   0.14932005
3 Stefano Langone   M          58          12.09        36.66   0.12445903
7      Jacob Lusk   M          43          16.56        56.00   0.07198350
5    Casey Abrams   M          39          10.86        58.66   0.06979012
4 Scotty McCreery   M          45          22.93        58.33   0.06134782
6  Haley Reinhart   F          46          11.77        58.00   0.06083877
2   Lauren Alaina   F          63          14.32        69.66   0.02243664
8    James Durbin   M          71          13.98        74.00   0.01471944

Paul McDonald is forecast to go home, with Stefano as a close second. Dialidol predictions at this stage in the contest are pretty bad, and they don’t predict anything anyway—nearly all the scores are the same. Gender doesn’t factor basically at all. What does factor in is the average of the three previous rounds score (from WNTS) and the preliminary results for this night (shown above)

This was a dismal night, to be honest. While this season has been on average 4 points better than any other season, tonight was its nadir, and was below the finals average, historically speaking.

James Durbin should be safe (what Dialidol says notwithstanding). Jacob, Casey, Scotty, and Haley are all running almost even. If I had to guess, I would put my money on Haley to round out the bottom 3, but ultimately be safe on the strength of the previous two weeks, which were popular and kept her out of the bottom 3.

Song spoilers: good or bad picks

Song spoilers (via twitter):

Michael,Tina,Janice Joplin,Johnny Cash,Aretha,Elvis,Beatles(George Harrison),Creedence + Percy Sledge R&R Hall of Fame Night on #IDOL 2nite!

The overall average score is 50. Here’s a list to give you an idea of how a given artist’s songs have scored (assuming that the song is “When a Man Loves a Woman”, mostly attributed to Percy Sledge and NOT to CCR)

Artist Avg Score Margin
Michael Jackson 50.9 +0.9
Tina Turner 50.1 +0.1
Janis Joplin 61.0 +11.0
Johnny Cash 63.0 +13.0
Aretha Franklin 65.3 +15.3
Elvis Presley 54.8 +4.8
The Beatles 50.9 +0.9
Percy Sledge 44.0 -6.0

If it was Casey who chose Percy Sledge, and I think it is, he picked a terrible song. Aretha is a great choice, as is Johnny Cash (almost certainly Scotty) and Janis Joplin (hopefully Haley). Pia’s pick of Tina Turner is not good at all, and whoever chose the Beatles didn’t make his life any easier.