Song spoilers: good or bad picks

Song spoilers (via twitter):

Michael,Tina,Janice Joplin,Johnny Cash,Aretha,Elvis,Beatles(George Harrison),Creedence + Percy Sledge R&R Hall of Fame Night on #IDOL 2nite!

The overall average score is 50. Here’s a list to give you an idea of how a given artist’s songs have scored (assuming that the song is “When a Man Loves a Woman”, mostly attributed to Percy Sledge and NOT to CCR)

Artist Avg Score Margin
Michael Jackson 50.9 +0.9
Tina Turner 50.1 +0.1
Janis Joplin 61.0 +11.0
Johnny Cash 63.0 +13.0
Aretha Franklin 65.3 +15.3
Elvis Presley 54.8 +4.8
The Beatles 50.9 +0.9
Percy Sledge 44.0 -6.0

If it was Casey who chose Percy Sledge, and I think it is, he picked a terrible song. Aretha is a great choice, as is Johnny Cash (almost certainly Scotty) and Janis Joplin (hopefully Haley). Pia’s pick of Tina Turner is not good at all, and whoever chose the Beatles didn’t make his life any easier.

Final 11 redux pre-game

Sight unseen, the variables that determine a losing Idol performance are age and sex. Young people are historically treated with skepticism by the public, especially those under 20. The public is also biased against women generally, but there is no real bias in theme rounds where the person whose songs are being performed (Elton John, in this case) is the opposite gender from the contestant:

Theme Contestant Eliminated
Barry Manilow (M) Jennifer Hudson (F)
Beatles (M) Amanda Overmyer (F), David Hernandez (M), Michael Lynche (M)
Bee Gees (M) LaKisha Jones (F), Josh Gracin (M)
Billy Joel (M) Kim Caldwell (F)
Bon Jovi (M) Phil Stacey (M) and Chris Richardson (M)*
Diana Ross (F) Brandon Roger (M)
Dolly Parton (F) Ramiele Malubay (F)
Elton John (M) Camile Velasco (F)
Elvis Presley (M) Chris Daughtry (M), Katie Stevens* (F), Andrew Garcia* (M)
Frank Sinatra (M) Aaron Kelly (M)
Gloria Estefan (F) John Stevens (M)
Mariah Carey (F) Kristy Lee Cook (F)
Michael Jackson (M) Jasmine Murray (F)*, Jorge Nunez (M)*
Neil Diamond (M) Brooke White (F)
Queen (??) Bucky Covington (M)
Rolling Stones (M) Lacey Brown (F)
Shania Twain (F) Siobhan Magnus (F)
Stevie Wonder (M) Melissa McGhee (F)

*in double elimination

It’s about even.

The people I would worry about Thia, Lauren, and Haley. All women, all 20 or younger, and two of which were in the bottom 3 already.