Top 11 post-game redux: assessing the model

The model was somewhat vindicated last night after a disastrous first week. I made significant improvements to the way it considered the data, and it correctly predicted the bottom 3. As I said, Naima was a sure thing, with Paul and Thia in a dead-heat. In the end, Thia was eliminated. What’s interesting to me is just how far off Dialidol was:

The bottom 6 according to Dialidol

On the one hand, Dialidol got 2/3 of the bottom 3. However, it significantly overestimated Naima, which my model had by a factor of 4 the most likely to be eliminated. I also get no sense that Lauren was possibly at risk, but Dialidol ranked her as fourth worst. Does anybody really believe that?

The WNTS approval ratings were quite different: Continue reading

Top 11 redux Elimination Projections

The model is relatively sure of the bottom 3. With a binary value model it thinks

Contestant Elim. Probability
Naima 0.216
Paul 0.278
Thia 0.260

A continuous variable analysis is way more sure of Naima

Contestant Elim. Probability
Naima 0.448
Paul 0.102
Thia 0.079

My personal feeling is that the second predictions are better, and the significance is better anyway. Naima is toast, then Paul and Thia in a dead heat. This could change if the major scoring services change a lot. I don’t think that’ll happen. Bye Naima!

Final 11 redux pre-game

Sight unseen, the variables that determine a losing Idol performance are age and sex. Young people are historically treated with skepticism by the public, especially those under 20. The public is also biased against women generally, but there is no real bias in theme rounds where the person whose songs are being performed (Elton John, in this case) is the opposite gender from the contestant:

Theme Contestant Eliminated
Barry Manilow (M) Jennifer Hudson (F)
Beatles (M) Amanda Overmyer (F), David Hernandez (M), Michael Lynche (M)
Bee Gees (M) LaKisha Jones (F), Josh Gracin (M)
Billy Joel (M) Kim Caldwell (F)
Bon Jovi (M) Phil Stacey (M) and Chris Richardson (M)*
Diana Ross (F) Brandon Roger (M)
Dolly Parton (F) Ramiele Malubay (F)
Elton John (M) Camile Velasco (F)
Elvis Presley (M) Chris Daughtry (M), Katie Stevens* (F), Andrew Garcia* (M)
Frank Sinatra (M) Aaron Kelly (M)
Gloria Estefan (F) John Stevens (M)
Mariah Carey (F) Kristy Lee Cook (F)
Michael Jackson (M) Jasmine Murray (F)*, Jorge Nunez (M)*
Neil Diamond (M) Brooke White (F)
Queen (??) Bucky Covington (M)
Rolling Stones (M) Lacey Brown (F)
Shania Twain (F) Siobhan Magnus (F)
Stevie Wonder (M) Melissa McGhee (F)

*in double elimination

It’s about even.

The people I would worry about Thia, Lauren, and Haley. All women, all 20 or younger, and two of which were in the bottom 3 already.